The effects of tobacco control policies on global smoking prevalence.

Substantial global effort has been devoted to curtailing the tobacco epidemic over the past two decades, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control1 by the World Health Organization in 2003. In 2015, in recognition of the burden resulting from tobacco use, strengthened tobacco control was included as a global development target in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development2. Here we show that comprehensive tobacco control policies-including smoking bans, health warnings, advertising bans and tobacco taxes-are effective in reducing smoking prevalence; amplified positive effects are seen when these policies are implemented simultaneously within a given country. We find that if all 155 countries included in our counterfactual analysis had adopted smoking bans, health warnings and advertising bans at the strictest level and raised cigarette prices to at least 7.73 international dollars in 2009, there would have been about 100 million fewer smokers in the world in 2017. These findings highlight the urgent need for countries to move toward an accelerated implementation of a set of strong tobacco control practices, thus curbing the burden of smoking-attributable diseases and deaths.

Simplified instructional phrasing in dispatcher-assisted cardiopulmonary resuscitation - when 'less is more'.

INTRODUCTION: In our national emergency dispatch centre, the standard protocol for dispatcher-assisted cardiopulmonary resuscitation (DACPR) in out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCAs) involves the instruction 'push 100 times a minute 5 cm deep'. As part of quality improvement, the instruction was simplified to 'push hard and fast'. METHODS: We analysed all dispatcher-diagnosed OHCAs over four months in 2018: January to February ('push 100 times a minute 5 cm deep') and August to September ('push hard and fast'). We also performed secondary per-protocol analysis based on the protocol used: (a) standard (n = 48); (b) simplified (n = 227); and (c) own words (n = 231). RESULTS: A total of 506 cases were included: 282 in the 'before' group and 224 in the 'after' group. Adherence to the protocol was 15.2% in the 'before' phase and 72.8% in the 'after' phase (p < 0.001). The mean time between instruction and first compression for the 'before' and 'after' groups was 34.36 seconds and 26.83 seconds, respectively (p < 0.001). Time to first compression was 238.62 seconds and 218.83 seconds in the 'before' and 'after' groups, respectively (p = 0.016). In the per-protocol analysis, the interval between instruction and compression was 37.19 seconds, 28.31 seconds and 32.40 seconds in the standard protocol, simplified protocol and 'own words' groups, respectively (p = 0.005). The need for paraphrasing was 60.4% in the standard protocol group and 81.5% in the simplified group (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Simplified instructions were associated with a shorter interval between instruction and first compression. Efforts should be directed at simplifying DACPR instructions.

Is your unconscious patient in cardiac arrest? A New protocol for telephonic diagnosis by emergency medical call-takers: A national study.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, call-taker recognition of out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (CA) suffers from poor accuracy, leading to missed opportunities for dispatcher-assisted cardiopulmonary resuscitation (DACPR) in CA patients and inappropriate DACPR in non-CA patients. Diagnostic protocols typically ask 2 questions in sequence: 'Is the patient conscious?' and 'Is the patient breathing normally?' As part of quality improvement efforts, our national emergency medical call centre changed the breathing question to an instruction for callers to place their hand onto the patient's abdomen to evaluate for the presence of breathing. METHODS: We performed a prospective before-and-after study of all unconscious cases from the national call centre database over a 31-day period in 2018. Cases were placed in 2 groups: 1) 'Before' group (standard protocol) where call-takers asked 'Is the patient breathing normally?' and 2) 'After' group (modified protocol) where callers were instructed to place their hand on the patient's abdomen. In an intention-to-treat analysis, the accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of both protocols for determining CA were compared. RESULTS: 1557 calls presented with unconsciousness, of which 513 cases were included. 231 cases were in the 'Before' group and 282 cases were in the 'After' group. The 'After' showed superior accuracy (84.4% vs 67.5%), sensitivity (75.0% vs 40.4%) and specificity (87.9% vs 75.4%) when compared to the standard protocol. Adherence in the 'Before' group to the standard protocol was 100%. However, adherence in the 'After' group to the modified protocol was 50.4%. Per protocol analysis comparing the modified protocol with the standard protocol showed vastly improved accuracy (96.5% vs 69.3%), sensitivity (94.1% vs 39.0%) and specificity (97.8% vs 77.2%) of the modified protocol. In patients with true cardiac arrest, the median time to 1st compression was 32.5 s longer in the modified protocol group when compared to the standard protocol group, approaching significance (199.5 s vs 167.0 s, p = 0.059). Median time to recognize CA was similar in both groups. CONCLUSION: Dispatch assessment using the hand on abdomen method appeared feasible but uptake by dispatch staff was moderate. Diagnostic performance of this method should be verified in randomised trials.

Nation-Wide Observational Study of Cardiac Arrests Occurring in Nursing Homes and Nursing Facilities in Singapore.

INTRODUCTION: Nursing home (NH) residents with out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCA) have unique resuscitation priorities. This study aimed to describe OHCA characteristics in NH residents and identify independent predictors of survival. MATERIALS AND METHODS: OHCA cases between 2010-16 in the Pan-Asian Resuscitation Outcomes Study were retrospectively analysed. Patients aged <18 years old and non-emergency cases were excluded. Primary outcome was survival at discharge or 30 days. Good neurological outcome was defined as a cerebral performance score between 1-2. RESULTS: A total of 12,112 cases were included. Of these, 449 (3.7%) were NH residents who were older (median age 79 years, range 69-87 years) and more likely to have a history of stroke, heart and respiratory diseases. Fewer NH OHCA had presumed cardiac aetiology (62% vs 70%, P <0.01) and initial shockable rhythm (8.9% vs 18%, P <0.01), but had higher incidence of bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (74% vs 43%, P <0.01) and defibrillator use (8.5% vs 2.8%, P <0.01). Non-NH (2.8%) residents had better neurological outcomes than NH (0.9%) residents (P <0.05). Factors associated with survival for cardiac aetiology included age <65 years old, witnessed arrest, bystander defibrillator use and initial shockable rhythm; for non-cardiac aetiology, these included witnessed arrest (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 3.8, P <0.001) and initial shockable rhythm (AOR 5.7, P <0.001). CONCLUSION: Neurological outcomes were poorer in NH survivors of OHCA. These findings should inform health policies on termination of resuscitation, advance care directives and do-not-resuscitate orders in this population.

Community-based interventions for detection and management of diabetes and hypertension in underserved communities: a mixed-methods evaluation in Brazil, India, South Africa and the USA.

INTRODUCTION: As non-communicable disease (NCD) burden rises worldwide, community-based programmes are a promising strategy to bridge gaps in NCD care. The HealthRise programme sought to improve hypertension and diabetes management for underserved communities in nine sites across Brazil, India, South Africa and the USA between 2016 and 2018. This study presents findings from the programme's endline evaluation. METHODS: The evaluation utilises a mixed-methods quasi-experimental design. Process indicators assess programme implementation; quantitative data examine patients' biometric measures and qualitative data characterise programme successes and challenges. Programme impact was assessed using the percentage of patients meeting blood pressure and A1c treatment targets and tracking changes in these measures over time. RESULTS: Almost 60 000 screenings, most of them in India, resulted in 1464 new hypertension and 295 new diabetes cases across sites. In Brazil, patients exhibited statistically significant reductions in blood pressure and A1c. In Shimla, India, and in South Africa, country with the shortest implementation period, there were no differences between patients served by facilities in HealthRise areas relative to comparison areas. Among participating patients with diabetes in Hennepin and Ramsey counties and hypertension patients in Hennepin County, the percentage of HealthRise patients meeting treatment targets at endline was significantly higher relative to comparison group patients. Qualitative analysis identified linking different providers, services, communities and information systems as positive HealthRise attributes. Gaps in health system capacities and sociodemographic factors, including poverty, low levels of health education and limited access to nutritious food, are remaining challenges. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from Brazil and the USA indicate that the HealthRise model has the potential to improve patient outcomes. Short implementation periods and strong emphasis on screening may have contributed to the lack of detectable differences in other sites. Community-based care cannot deliver its full potential if sociodemographic and health system barriers are not addressed in tandem.

Maternal mortality ratios in 2852 Chinese counties, 1996-2015, and achievement of Millennium Development Goal 5 in China: a subnational analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

BACKGROUND: As one of only a handful of countries that have achieved both Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) 4 and 5, China has substantially lowered maternal mortality in the past two decades. Little is known, however, about the levels and trends of maternal mortality at the county level in China. METHODS: Using a national registration system of maternal mortality at the county level, we estimated the maternal mortality ratios for 2852 counties in China between 1996 and 2015. We used a state-of-the-art Bayesian small-area estimation hierarchical model with latent Gaussian layers to account for space and time correlations among neighbouring counties. Estimates at the county level were then scaled to be consistent with country-level estimates of maternal mortality for China, which were separately estimated from multiple data sources. We also assessed maternal mortality ratios among ethnic minorities in China and computed Gini coefficients of inequality of maternal mortality ratios at the country and provincial levels. FINDINGS: China as a country has experienced fast decline in maternal mortality ratios, from 108·7 per 100 000 livebirths in 1996 to 21·8 per 100 000 livebirths in 2015, with an annualised rate of decline of 8·5% per year, which is much faster than the target pace in MDG 5. However, we found substantial heterogeneity in levels and trends at the county level. In 1996, the range of maternal mortality ratios by county was 16·8 per 100 000 livebirths in Shantou, Guangdong, to 3510·3 per 100 000 livebirths in Zanda County, Tibet. Almost all counties showed remarkable decline in maternal mortality ratios in the two decades regardless of those in 1996. The annualised rate of decline across counties from 1996 to 2015 ranges from 4·4% to 12·9%, and 2838 (99·5%) of the 2852 counties had achieved the MDG 5 pace of decline. Decline accelerated between 2005 and 2015 compared with between 1996 and 2005. In 2015, the lowest county-level maternal mortality ratio was 3·4 per 100 000 livebirths in Nanhu District, Zhejiang Province. The highest was still in Zanda County, Tibet, but the fall to 830·5 per 100 000 livebirths was only 76·3%. 26 ethnic groups had population majorities in at least one county in China, and all had achieved declines in maternal mortality ratios in line with the pace of MDG 5. Intercounty Gini coefficients for maternal mortality ratio have declined at the national level in China, indicating improved equality, whereas trends in inequality at the provincial level varied. INTERPRETATION: In the past two decades, maternal mortality ratios have reduced rapidly and universally across China at the county level. Fast improvement in maternal mortality ratios is possible even in less economically developed places with resource constraints. This finding has important implications for improving maternal mortality ratios in developing countries in the Sustainable Development Goal era. FUNDING: National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People's Republic of China, China Medical Board, WHO, University of Washington Center for Demography and Economics of Aging, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Characteristics of Frequent Users of Emergency Medical Services in Singapore.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to describe frequent users of Emergency Medical Services (EMS) conveyed to a Singapore tertiary hospital, focusing on a comparison between younger users (age <65) and older users in diagnoses and admission rates. METHODS: All patients conveyed by EMS to a tertiary hospital 4 times or more over a 1-year period in 2015 had their EMS ambulance charts and Emergency Department (ED) electronic records retrospectively analyzed (n = 243), with admission the primary outcome. RESULTS: The 243 frequent users were analyzed with a combined total of 1,705 visits, out of a total of 10,183 patients with 12,839 visits conveyed by EMS to Singapore General Hospital (SGH) in 2015. Younger frequent users (<65 years age) were found to be predominantly male (79.6%, p = 0.001) and were on average responsible for more visits than elderly frequent users (8.6 vs. 5.7, p = 0.004). Medical co-morbidities were significantly more prevalent in older users. Younger frequent users were more likely to be smokers (60.2% vs. 22.3%), heavy drinkers (51.3% vs. 8.5%), substance abusers (12.4% vs. 0.8%), and bad debtors (49.6% vs. 20.0%, p < 0.001). A larger proportion presented with altered mental states (11.7% vs. 5.4%, p < 0.001) and alcohol related diagnoses (34.7% vs. 5.3%, p < 0.001). Many were picked up from public areas (45.5% vs. 19.6%, p < 0.001), and had lower acuity triage scores at both EMS (p < 0.001) and ED (p = 0.001). They had lower admission rates (40.5% vs. 78.7%, p < 0.001) and shorter length of stay (4.3 vs. 5.9 days, p < 0.001). Univariable and multivariable analysis showed alcohol related diagnoses, history of alcohol abuse and lower triage scores were less likely to require admissions. CONCLUSION: Frequent EMS users consume a disproportionate amount of healthcare resources. Two broad subgroups of patients were identified: younger patients with social issues and older patients with multiple medical conditions. EMS usage by older patients was significantly associated with higher rates of admission.

Public knowledge of cardiovascular disease and response to acute cardiac events in three cities in China and India.

OBJECTIVE: To inform interventions targeted towards reducing mortality from acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and sudden cardiac arrest in three megacities in China and India, a baseline assessment of public knowledge, attitudes and practices was performed. METHODS: A household survey, supplemented by focus group and individual interviews, was used to assess public understanding of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, AMI symptoms, cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) and automated external defibrillators (AEDs). Additionally, information was collected on emergency service utilisation and associated barriers to care. RESULTS: 5456 household surveys were completed. Hypertension was most commonly recognised among CVD risk factors in Beijing and Shanghai (68% and 67%, respectively), while behavioural risk factors were most commonly identified in Bangalore (smoking 91%; excessive alcohol consumption 64%). Chest pain/discomfort was reported by at least 60% of respondents in all cities as a symptom of AMI, but 21% of individuals in Bangalore could not name a single symptom. In Beijing, Shanghai and Bangalore, 26%, 15% and 3% of respondents were trained in CPR, respectively. Less than one-quarter of participants in all cities recognised an AED. Finally, emergency service utilisation rates were low, and many individuals expressed concern about the quality of prehospital care. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, we found low to modest knowledge of CVD risk factors and AMI symptoms, infrequent CPR training and little understanding of AEDs. Interventions will need to focus on basic principles of CVD and its complications in order for patients to receive timely and appropriate care for acute cardiac events.

Ischaemic heart disease in the former Soviet Union 1990-2015 according to the Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to compare ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality and risk factor burden across former Soviet Union (fSU) and satellite countries and regions in 1990 and 2015. METHODS: The fSU and satellite countries were grouped into Central Asian, Central European and Eastern European regions. IHD mortality data for men and women of any age were gathered from national vital registration, and age, sex, country, year-specific IHD mortality rates were estimated in an ensemble model. IHD morbidity and mortality burden attributable to risk factors was estimated by comparative risk assessment using population attributable fractions. RESULTS: In 2015, age-standardised IHD death rates in Eastern European and Central Asian fSU countries were almost two times that of satellite states of Central Europe. Between 1990 and 2015, rates decreased substantially in Central Europe (men -43.5% (95% uncertainty interval -45.0%, -42.0%); women -42.9% (-44.0%, -41.0%)) but less in Eastern Europe (men -5.6% (-9.0, -3.0); women -12.2% (-15.5%, -9.0%)). Age-standardised IHD death rates also varied within regions: within Eastern Europe, rates decreased -51.7% in Estonian men (-54.0, -47.0) but increased +19.4% in Belarusian men (+12.0, +27.0). High blood pressure and cholesterol were leading risk factors for IHD burden, with smoking, body mass index, dietary factors and ambient air pollution also ranking high. CONCLUSIONS: Some fSU countries continue to experience a high IHD burden, while others have achieved remarkable reductions in IHD mortality. Control of blood pressure, cholesterol and smoking are IHD prevention priorities.

Drowning in swimming pools: clinical features and safety recommendations based on a study of descriptive records by emergency medical services attending to 995 calls.

INTRODUCTION: This study was a descriptive analysis of national ambulance case records and aimed to make practical safety recommendations in order to reduce the incidence of drowning in swimming pools. METHODS: A search was performed of a national database of descriptive summaries by first-responder paramedics of all 995 calls made to the Singapore Civil Defence Force between 1 January 2012 and 31 December 2014. We included all cases of submersion in both public and private pools for which emergency medical services were activated. RESULTS: The highest proportion of drowning cases occurred in the age group of 0-9 years. Males accounted for 57.0% (61/107) of cases. Bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) was performed in 91.3% (21/23) and 68.6% (48/70) of cases of cardiac/respiratory arrest from drowning in public and private pools, respectively; the rate of bystander CPR was higher when a lifeguard was present (88.5%, 23/26 vs. 68.7%, 46/67). The majority (72.0%, 77/107) of drowning incidents occurred in private pools, most of which had no lifeguards present. CONCLUSION: To our knowledge, this study was the first in Singapore to examine data from emergency medical services. Since the majority of incidents occurred in private pools without lifeguards, it is recommended that a lifeguard be present at every pool. For pools that are too small to justify mandatory lifeguard presence, safety measures, such as guidelines for pool design and pool fencing with latched gates, may be considered. As strict enforcement may not be possible, public education and parental vigilance remain vital.

Identifying gaps in the continuum of care for hypertension and diabetes in two Indian communities.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represent the largest, and fastest growing, burden of disease in India. This study aimed to quantify levels of diagnosis, treatment, and control among hypertensive and diabetic patients, and to describe demand- and supply-side barriers to hypertension and diabetes diagnosis and care in two Indian districts, Shimla and Udaipur. METHODS: We conducted household and health facility surveys, as well as qualitative focus group discussions and interviews. The household survey randomly sampled individuals aged 15 and above in rural and urban areas in both districts. The survey included questions on NCD knowledge, history, and risk factors. Blood pressure, weight, height, and blood glucose measurements were obtained. The health facility survey was administered in 48 health care facilities, focusing on NCD diagnosis and treatment capacity, including staffing, equipment, and pharmaceuticals. Qualitative data was collected through semi-structured key informant interviews with health professionals and public health officials, as well as focus groups with patients and community members. RESULTS: Among 7181 individuals, 32% either reported a history of hypertension or were found to have a systolic blood pressure ≥ 140 mmHg and/or diastolic ≥90 mmHg. Only 26% of those found to have elevated blood pressure reported a prior diagnosis, and just 42% of individuals with a prior diagnosis of hypertension were found to be normotensive. A history of diabetes or an elevated blood sugar (Random blood glucose (RBG) ≥200 mg/dl or fasting blood glucose (FBG) ≥126 mg/dl) was noted in 7% of the population. Among those with an elevated RBG/FBG, 59% had previously received a diagnosis of diabetes. Only 60% of diabetics on treatment were measured with a RBG <200 mg/dl. Lower-level health facilities were noted to have limited capacity to measure blood glucose as well as significant gaps in the availability of first-line pharmaceuticals for both hypertension and diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: We found high rates of uncontrolled diabetes and undiagnosed and uncontrolled hypertension. Lower level health facilities were constrained by capacity to test, monitor and treat diabetes and hypertension. Interventions aimed at improving patient outcomes will need to focus on the expanding access to quality care in order to accommodate the growing demand for NCD services.

Global Burden of Hypertension and Systolic Blood Pressure of at Least 110 to 115 mm Hg, 1990-2015.

Importance: Elevated systolic blood (SBP) pressure is a leading global health risk. Quantifying the levels of SBP is important to guide prevention policies and interventions. Objective: To estimate the association between SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher and the burden of different causes of death and disability by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015. Design: A comparative risk assessment of health loss related to SBP. Estimated distribution of SBP was based on 844 studies from 154 countries (published 1980-2015) of 8.69 million participants. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression was used to generate estimates of mean SBP and adjusted variance for each age, sex, country, and year. Diseases with sufficient evidence for a causal relationship with high SBP (eg, ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke) were included in the primary analysis. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mean SBP level, cause-specific deaths, and health burden related to SBP (≥110-115 mm Hg and also ≥140 mm Hg) by age, sex, country, and year. Results: Between 1990-2015, the rate of SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 73 119 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 67 949-78 241) to 81 373 (95% UI, 76 814-85 770) per 100 000, and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 17 307 (95% UI, 17 117-17 492) to 20 526 (95% UI, 20 283-20 746) per 100 000. The estimated annual death rate per 100 000 associated with SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 135.6 (95% UI, 122.4-148.1) to 145.2 (95% UI 130.3-159.9) and the rate for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 97.9 (95% UI, 87.5-108.1) to 106.3 (95% UI, 94.6-118.1). For loss of DALYs associated with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher, the loss increased from 95.9 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 87.0-104.9 million) to 143.0 million (95% UI, 130.2-157.0 million) [corrected], and for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher, the loss increased from 5.2 million (95% UI, 4.6-5.7 million) to 7.8 million (95% UI, 7.0-8.7 million). The largest numbers of SBP-related deaths were caused by ischemic heart disease (4.9 million [95% UI, 4.0-5.7 million]; 54.5%), hemorrhagic stroke (2.0 million [95% UI, 1.6-2.3 million]; 58.3%), and ischemic stroke (1.5 million [95% UI, 1.2-1.8 million]; 50.0%). In 2015, China, India, Russia, Indonesia, and the United States accounted for more than half of the global DALYs related to SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg. Conclusions and Relevance: In international surveys, although there is uncertainty in some estimates, the rate of elevated SBP (≥110-115 and ≥140 mm Hg) increased substantially between 1990 and 2015, and DALYs and deaths associated with elevated SBP also increased. Projections based on this sample suggest that in 2015, an estimated 3.5 billion adults had SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and 874 million adults had SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher.

Assessing the Contribution of Malaria Vector Control and Other Maternal and Child Health Interventions in Reducing All-Cause Under-Five Mortality in Zambia, 1990-2010.

Under-five mortality in Zambia has declined since 1990, with reductions accelerating after 2000. Zambia's scale-up of malaria control is viewed as the driver of these gains, but past studies have not fully accounted for other potential factors. This study sought to systematically evaluate the impact of malaria vector control on under-five mortality. Using a mixed-effects regression model, we quantified the relationship between malaria vector control, other priority health interventions, and socioeconomic indicators and district-level under-five mortality trends from 1990 to 2010. We then conducted counterfactual analyses to estimate under-five mortality in the absence of scaling up malaria vector control. Throughout Zambia, increased malaria vector control coverage coincided with scaling up three other interventions: the pentavalent vaccine, exclusive breast-feeding, and prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV services. This simultaneous scale-up made statistically isolating intervention-specific impact infeasible. Instead, in combination, these interventions jointly accelerated declines in under-five mortality by 11% between 2000 and 2010. Zambia's scale-up of multiple interventions is notable, yet our findings highlight challenges in quantifying program-specific impact without better health data and information systems. As countries aim to further improve health outcomes, there is even greater need-and opportunity-to strengthen routine data systems and to develop more rigorous evaluation strategies.

Global burden of stroke and risk factors in 188 countries, during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: The contribution of modifiable risk factors to the increasing global and regional burden of stroke is unclear, but knowledge about this contribution is crucial for informing stroke prevention strategies. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) to estimate the population-attributable fraction (PAF) of stroke-related disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with potentially modifiable environmental, occupational, behavioural, physiological, and metabolic risk factors in different age and sex groups worldwide and in high-income countries and low-income and middle-income countries, from 1990 to 2013. METHODS: We used data on stroke-related DALYs, risk factors, and PAF from the GBD 2013 Study to estimate the burden of stroke by age and sex (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UI]) in 188 countries, as measured with stroke-related DALYs in 1990 and 2013. We evaluated attributable DALYs for 17 risk factors (air pollution and environmental, dietary, physical activity, tobacco smoke, and physiological) and six clusters of risk factors by use of three inputs: risk factor exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. For most risk factors, we synthesised data for exposure with a Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR) or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. We based relative risks on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks, such as high body-mass index (BMI), through other risks, such as high systolic blood pressure (SBP) and high total cholesterol. FINDINGS: Globally, 90·5% (95% UI 88·5-92·2) of the stroke burden (as measured in DALYs) was attributable to the modifiable risk factors analysed, including 74·2% (95% UI 70·7-76·7) due to behavioural factors (smoking, poor diet, and low physical activity). Clusters of metabolic factors (high SBP, high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, high total cholesterol, and low glomerular filtration rate; 72·4%, 95% UI 70·2-73·5) and environmental factors (air pollution and lead exposure; 33·4%, 95% UI 32·4-34·3) were the second and third largest contributors to DALYs. Globally, 29·2% (95% UI 28·2-29·6) of the burden of stroke was attributed to air pollution. Although globally there were no significant differences between sexes in the proportion of stroke burden due to behavioural, environmental, and metabolic risk clusters, in the low-income and middle-income countries, the PAF of behavioural risk clusters in males was greater than in females. The PAF of all risk factors increased from 1990 to 2013 (except for second-hand smoking and household air pollution from solid fuels) and varied significantly between countries. INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that more than 90% of the stroke burden is attributable to modifiable risk factors, and achieving control of behavioural and metabolic risk factors could avert more than three-quarters of the global stroke burden. Air pollution has emerged as a significant contributor to global stroke burden, especially in low-income and middle-income countries, and therefore reducing exposure to air pollution should be one of the main priorities to reduce stroke burden in these countries. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Heart Association, US National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Columbia University, Health Research Council of New Zealand, Brain Research New Zealand Centre of Research Excellence, and National Science Challenge, Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment of New Zealand.

A novel method for estimating distributions of body mass index.

BACKGROUND: Understanding trends in the distribution of body mass index (BMI) is a critical aspect of monitoring the global overweight and obesity epidemic. Conventional population health metrics often only focus on estimating and reporting the mean BMI and the prevalence of overweight and obesity, which do not fully characterize the distribution of BMI. In this study, we propose a novel method which allows for the estimation of the entire distribution. METHODS: The proposed method utilizes the optimization algorithm, L-BFGS-B, to derive the distribution of BMI from three commonly available population health statistics: mean BMI, prevalence of overweight, and prevalence of obesity. We conducted a series of simulations to examine the properties, accuracy, and robustness of the method. We then illustrated the practical application of the method by applying it to the 2011-2012 US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). RESULTS: Our method performed satisfactorily across various simulation scenarios yielding empirical (estimated) distributions which aligned closely with the true distributions. Application of the method to the NHANES data also showed a high level of consistency between the empirical and true distributions. In situations where there were considerable outliers, the method was less satisfactory at capturing the extreme values. Nevertheless, it remained accurate at estimating the central tendency and quintiles. CONCLUSION: The proposed method offers a tool that can efficiently estimate the entire distribution of BMI. The ability to track the distributions of BMI will improve our capacity to capture changes in the severity of overweight and obesity and enable us to better monitor the epidemic.

Vaccine Assistance To Low- And Middle-Income Countries Increased To $3.6 Billion In 2014.

In the 2012 Global Vaccine Action Plan, development assistance partners committed to providing sustainable financing for vaccines and expanding vaccination coverage to all children in low- and middle-income countries by 2020. To assess progress toward these goals, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation produced estimates of development assistance for vaccinations. These estimates reveal major increases in the assistance provided since 2000. In 2014, $3.6 billion in development assistance for vaccinations was provided for low- and middle-income countries, up from $822 million in 2000. The funding increase was driven predominantly by the establishment of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the governments of the United States and United Kingdom. Despite stagnation in total development assistance for health from donors from 2010 onward, development assistance for vaccination has continued to grow.

Lay health supporters aided by a mobile phone messaging system to improve care of villagers with schizophrenia in Liuyang, China: protocol for a randomised control trial.

INTRODUCTION: Schizophrenia is a severe, chronic and disabling mental illness. Non-adherence to medication and relapse may lead to poorer patient function. This randomised controlled study, under the acronym LEAN (Lay health supporter, e-platform, award, and iNtegration), is designed to improve medication adherence and high relapse among people with schizophrenia in resource poor settings. METHODS/ANALYSIS: The community-based LEAN has four parts: (1) Lay health supporters (LHSs), mostly family members who will help supervise patient medication, monitor relapse and side effects, and facilitate access to care, (2) an E-platform to support two-way mobile text and voice messaging to remind patients to take medication; and alert LHSs when patients are non-adherent, (3) an Award system to motivate patients and strengthen LHS support, and (4) iNtegration of the efforts of patients and LHSs with those of village doctors, township mental health administrators and psychiatrists via the e-platform. A random sample of 258 villagers with schizophrenia will be drawn from the schizophrenic '686' Program registry for the 9 Xiang dialect towns of the Liuyang municipality in China. The sample will be further randomised into a control group and a treatment group of equal sizes, and each group will be followed for 6 months after launch of the intervention. The primary outcome will be medication adherence as measured by pill counts and supplemented by pharmacy records. Other outcomes include symptoms and level of function. Outcomes will be assessed primarily when patients present for medication refill visits scheduled every 2 months over the 6-month follow-up period. Data from the study will be analysed using analysis of covariance for the programme effect and an intent-to-treat approach. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: University of Washington: 49464 G; Central South University: CTXY-150002-6. Results will be published in peer-reviewed journals with deidentified data made available on FigShare. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ChiCTR-ICR-15006053; Pre-results.

Benchmarking health system performance across regions in Uganda: a systematic analysis of levels and trends in key maternal and child health interventions, 1990-2011.

BACKGROUND: Globally, countries are increasingly prioritizing the reduction of health inequalities and provision of universal health coverage. While national benchmarking has become more common, such work at subnational levels is rare. The timely and rigorous measurement of local levels and trends in key health interventions and outcomes is vital to identifying areas of progress and detecting early signs of stalled or declining health system performance. Previous studies have yet to provide a comprehensive assessment of Uganda's maternal and child health (MCH) landscape at the subnational level. METHODS: By triangulating a number of different data sources - population censuses, household surveys, and administrative data - we generated regional estimates of 27 key MCH outcomes, interventions, and socioeconomic indicators from 1990 to 2011. After calculating source-specific estimates of intervention coverage, we used a two-step statistical model involving a mixed-effects linear model as an input to Gaussian process regression to produce regional-level trends. We also generated national-level estimates and constructed an indicator of overall intervention coverage based on the average of 11 high-priority interventions. RESULTS: National estimates often veiled large differences in coverage levels and trends across Uganda's regions. Under-5 mortality declined dramatically, from 163 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 85 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2011, but a large gap between Kampala and the rest of the country persisted. Uganda rapidly scaled up a subset of interventions across regions, including household ownership of insecticide-treated nets, receipt of artemisinin-based combination therapies among children under 5, and pentavalent immunization. Conversely, most regions saw minimal increases, if not actual declines, in the coverage of indicators that required multiple contacts with the health system, such as four or more antenatal care visits, three doses of oral polio vaccine, and two doses of intermittent preventive therapy during pregnancy. Some of the regions with the lowest levels of overall intervention coverage in 1990, such as North and West Nile, saw marked progress by 2011; nonetheless, sizeable disparities remained between Kampala and the rest of the country. Countrywide, overall coverage increased from 40% in 1990 to 64% in 2011, but coverage in 2011 ranged from 57% to 70% across regions. CONCLUSIONS: The MCH landscape in Uganda has, for the most part, improved between 1990 and 2011. Subnational benchmarking quantified the persistence of geographic health inequalities and identified regions in need of additional health systems strengthening. The tracking and analysis of subnational health trends should be conducted regularly to better guide policy decisions and strengthen responsiveness to local health needs.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Trends and Determinants of Antiretroviral Therapy Patient Monitoring Practices in Kenya and Uganda.

INTRODUCTION: Patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) require routine monitoring to track response to treatment and assess for treatment failure. This study aims to identify gaps in monitoring practices in Kenya and Uganda. METHODS: We conducted a systematic retrospective chart review of adults who initiated ART between 2007 and 2012. We assessed the availability of baseline measurements (CD4 count, weight, and WHO stage) and ongoing CD4 and weight monitoring according to national guidelines in place at the time. Mixed-effects logistic regression models were used to analyze facility and patient factors associated with meeting monitoring guidelines. RESULTS: From 2007 to 2012, at least 88% of patients per year in Uganda had a recorded weight at initiation, while in Kenya there was a notable increase from 69% to 90%. Patients with a documented baseline CD4 count increased from 69% to about 80% in both countries. In 2012, 83% and 86% of established patients received the recommended quarterly weight monitoring in Kenya and Uganda, respectively, while semiannual CD4 monitoring was less common (49% in Kenya and 38% in Uganda). Initiating at a more advanced WHO stage was associated with a lower odds of baseline CD4 testing. On-site CD4 analysis capacity was associated with increased odds of CD4 testing at baseline and in the future. DISCUSSION: Substantial gaps were noted in ongoing CD4 monitoring of patients on ART. Although guidelines have since changed, limited laboratory capacity is likely to remain a significant issue in monitoring patients on ART, with important implications for ensuring quality care.